2012 1-2 month logistics operation

Affected by the domestic economic growth slowed and the Spring Festival holiday, 1-2 months of this year, China's logistics demand growth has declined, the total social logistics costs of steady growth, fixed asset investment in logistics industry declined slightly, logistics prices are low, the logistics enterprises operating cost pressures still larger, profits decline. The main features of logistics operation in 1-2 months:

First, the logistics demand growth rate down

1-2 months of this year, the national total of 23 trillion and 500 billion yuan of social logistics, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 10.6%, an increase of the same period fell by 3.9 percentage points. Among them, the total industrial logistics was 21 trillion and 400 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 11.4%, an increase of down by 2.7 percentage points. Total imports of goods amounted to 1 trillion and 700 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 0.9%, an increase of down by 17.6 percentage points. Total logistics of agricultural products 200 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 4.5%, an increase of up to 0.2 percentage points. The total amount of renewable resources and logistics units and the total amount of goods by residents at comparable prices, an increase of 33.6% and an increase of 16.1%, an increase of the same period fell by 7.9 and 4.7 percentage points. 1-2 month total social logistics growth fell year on year, mainly due to the slowdown in economic growth at home and abroad, as well as the Spring Festival holiday and other factors, but overall still seems to maintain a relatively stable growth.

Figure 1 changes in the total amount of social logistics and growth (unit: 100 million yuan)

The holiday factors have great influence on the logistics business, the supply side of staple commodities port inventory pressure rising, shrinking demand side enterprise production activities, such as coal and iron ore resources are the decline in demand for transport. 1-2 month the whole society to complete the volume of traffic grew by 11.7%, an increase of down by 1.5 percentage points. Port cargo throughput increased by 7% over the same period last year, container throughput grew by 8.5%, an increase of the same period fell by the same time, respectively, and 4.9 percentage points. From the express business, still maintain a rapid growth momentum. 1-2 months, the national courier service enterprises above Designated Size totaled 620 million, an increase of 47.1%, courier business revenue totaled $13 billion 300 million, an increase of 40.4%.

Two, the steady growth of the total cost of social logistics

1-2 month total social logistics costs 1 trillion and 300 billion yuan, an increase of 12.3%. Among them, the transportation costs 700 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8%. Management fees 170 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4%. Custody costs 440 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8%. In the custody of the interest expense increased by 14.6% year on year, warehousing, distribution, circulation processing and packaging costs grew by about 5.4%, respectively, of 9.4% and 6.8%.

Figure 2 the total cost of social logistics (unit:%)

Three, the logistics industry added value growth

1-2 months, China's logistics industry added value of 500 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 12.6%. Among them, the transportation industry added value of 400 billion yuan, an increase of 13.4%, wholesale and retail, warehousing, postal services grew by an increase of $10.6%, respectively, an increase of 21%.

Four, the logistics industry investment in fixed assets declined slightly

1-2 months of fixed asset investment in the logistics industry to complete the amount of 200 billion yuan, down by 3.3%. Among them, the transportation industry to complete the investment 145 billion 100 million yuan, down by 12.8%. Mainly by the past two years, part of the capital investment to complete the construction period, the project investment in the construction of the decline in the number of new projects to reduce the number of factors such as the impact. Warehousing and postal services, wholesale and retail investment continued to maintain rapid growth, an increase of 18% and 33.8%, respectively.

Five, low logistics price operation

From the perspective of large and medium cities road freight prices, in February the province's overall vehicle tariff is generally stable, the province's freight rate has declined.

From the coastal bulk freight index, as the Spring Festival after the gradual recovery of production, demand and mid February price index of coastal sanhuo bottoming out, to early March has rebounded to 1184.2 points, up 8% compared with the beginning of the year lows. But the overall demand to maintain a relatively low level, 1-2 months China's coastal composite index was 1116.5 points, down by 15.1%.

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) 1-2 month was 874 points, down by 32.3%, the BDI index fell sharply, one by the global economic slowdown and the impact of sustained growth in maritime transport capacity. 2011 global bulk cargo volume increased by 5%, while bulk carrier capacity increased by 15%, the market oversupply situation has not changed. Two Asian countries such as the Lunar New Year and other seasonal factors and bad weather in Australia, South America and other climate factors to reduce the demand for shipping.

Six, logistics enterprises to achieve profit decline

Key logistics companies survey data show that in January the main business income of logistics companies fell 15.6%, the main business profit fell by 4.7%. From the logistics industry PMI, logistics industry PMI price index in February was 48.5%, down 3 percentage points higher than in January and February, the logistics industry PMI intermediate input price index was 62.5%, 4.5 percentage points higher than in January, the high cost and low price business situation has not changed.

The day before the country once again raised the gasoline and diesel prices were increased by 600 yuan per ton, is the largest increase since 2008. Oil prices continue to rise, especially in the logistics business enterprises have a great impact. This year, the cost of logistics enterprises are facing rising pressure is still large, the business situation is not optimistic.

At present, the macro economy is in a critical period of self correction and structural adjustment, stable from the perspective of economic development, macro monetary policy will continue to maintain the forward-looking and continuity of fiscal policy to promote consumption, improve the structural tax cuts, encourage private investment, industrial integration development, the development of the logistics industry and modern service industry as the main direction. At the same time, in order to ensure the steady development of macroeconomic this year, the central bank to carry out monetary policy fine-tuning, respectively, in November last year, in two this year to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of up to 1 percentage points. In 2012 the government work report will also "invigorate the circulation, reduce the cost and to deepen the reform of the circulation system of the year as an important task, to improve circulation efficiency and reduce the cost of circulation, which will provide strong support to the development of the logistics industry. February logistics industry PMI business activity index was 63.5%, a sharp rise of more than 5 percentage points in January, also indicates that the logistics operation and business activities are expected to gradually recover and become active.